CSDS Speaker Series 2010-11
In cooperation with
Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies
The CCISS Intelligence and National Security Seminar

Managing Uncertainty:
Lessons for Defence Planning

Brian W. Greene
Department of National Defence

From a defence planning perspective, the key to mitigating the effects of surprise, if not avoiding surprise altogether, is generally understood to lie in more effectively managing the problem of uncertainty (i.e., the existence of insufficient and/or ambiguous data about an enemy's capabilities and intentions). To the extent that uncertainty poses a serious obstacle to effective planning, however, it is a problem circumscribed by relatively firm knowledge as to the potential sources of surprise. Accordingly, Dr. Greene recasts the problem of strategic surprise as one of 'bounded uncertainty,' a conceptual move with distinct implications for the organization of defence planning and intelligence processes.  

Brian W. Greene is a Defence Scientist with the Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), part of Defence Research & Development Canada (DRDC). Dr. Greene holds a PhD in political science from McGill University. Prior to joining CORA in 2006, he taught international relations and Canadian foreign policy at McGill University, Carleton University, and Brock University. His most recent research focuses on the problem of strategic surprise.

Monday, 15 November 2010
12:00 - 1:30 pm
Dunton Tower, Room 2017
Carleton University

Light sandwich lunch will be provided.
Registration is requested by Thursday, November 11th to
or calling 613.520.2600 ext 6671

The CSDS Speaker Series events are free and open to the public.
For more information visit carleton.ca/csds
or call 613.520.2600 ext 6671